This is why Rivian (RIVN) inventory is down right now regardless of This fall milestone

Rivian (RIVN) shares hit a brand new yearly low on Monday, dropping almost 10%. Regardless of attaining its first gross revenue in This fall, Rivian’s inventory is taking a beating because of blended analyst opinions. Right here’s what they’re saying.

Final week, Rivian launched its fourth quarter 2024 earnings, saying a gross revenue of $170 million. Though nonetheless a comparatively small quantity, it’s a large $776 million enchancment from This fall 2023 and Rivian’s first optimistic gross revenue.

After shutting down its manufacturing plant in Regular, IL, final April for upgrades and launching its second-generation R1 automobiles, CEO RJ Scaringe mentioned the corporate is seeing “significant” price reductions.

“This quarter, we achieved optimistic gross revenue and eliminated $31,000 in automotive price of products offered per car delivered in This fall 2024 relative to This fall 2023,” Scaringe defined final week after releasing fourth-quarter earnings.

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Rivian constructed 49,476 automobiles final 12 months and delivered 51,579. In 2025, the corporate expects barely fewer deliveries, projecting between 46,000 and 51,000 because of exterior elements, together with altering authorities insurance policies. It additionally expects decrease EDV deliveries for Amazon after larger output in This fall.

Some Wall St analysts are additionally involved about coverage modifications underneath the Trump Administration. On Monday, Financial institution of America analysts downgraded Rivian inventory to an Underperform score from Impartial following its This fall outcomes.

The analysts additionally minimize Rivian’s inventory worth goal to $10 from $13, saying the 2025 supply forecast was “softer than anticipated” and “there may very well be extra draw back threat if coverage modifications are enacted.”

Rivian inventory hit with a downgrade after This fall earnings

Financial institution of America warned that new competitors from Lucid (LCID), GM’s Chevy, and VW’s Scout might influence gross sales projections over the subsequent few years.

In the meantime, the memo did say Rivian remains to be “one of the vital viable” EV startups and the three way partnership with Volkswagen is “complicating earnings forecasts for a minimum of the subsequent 4 years” for forecasting. Rivian finalized its EV three way partnership with VW within the fourth quarter, price as much as $5.8 billion, of which Rivian will get $3.5 billion over the subsequent few years.

A part of Rivian’s decrease 2025 supply forecast is because of plant upgrades coming on the finish of the 12 months for its extra inexpensive R2 SUV. Beginning at $45,000, the R2 might be almost half the price of the present R1S and R1T.

Rivian plans to start R2 manufacturing early subsequent 12 months in Regular however expects output to considerably ramp up at its new EV plant in Georgia.

Regardless of closing on its mortgage settlement for the US DOE for as much as $6.6 billion final month, the funding is up within the air with Trump threatening to freeze federal loans.

“Given the Trump Administration’s deal with cost-cutting, we imagine there may very well be a threat to RIVN’s $6.6 billion Division of Power mortgage closed by the Biden Administration on Jan 16,” Financial institution of America analysts mentioned.

Regardless of the downgrade, a number of analysts upgraded the inventory. Needham raised its worth goal from $14 to $17, whereas Wells Fargo bumped theirs as much as $14 from $11 with an “Equal-Weight” score.

Rivian’s inventory was down over 8% on Monday following the downgrade. At round $11.90, nevertheless, Rivian shares are nonetheless up 11% over the previous 12 months.