what can we count on from the subsequent Method 1 World Championship?

December 15, 2024

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The engines have turned off. The 2024 Method 1 season, the longest within the historical past of this motorsport self-discipline with 24 occasions over 10 months, concluded final weekend with the ultimate occasion of the season in Abu Dhabi and a post-season testing session on the 5.281-kilometre Yas Marina Circuit on Yas Island.

The just-concluded Method 1 championship was probably the most aggressive in current a long time, actually within the so-called turbo-hybrid period, which began with Mercedes’ dominance in 2014, adopted by Pink Bull and Max Verstappen’s dominance.

Turning our backs on the current previous, the eight consecutive constructors’ titles gained by the Mercedes staff till 2021 won’t be remembered as among the many best in Method 1 historical past. Mercedes basically had no rivals, besides maybe within the ultimate yr when the drivers’ championship went to Max Verstappen in 2021. The identical might be stated for the 2022 and 2023 Method 1 seasons, which, due to the change in laws, noticed the dominance of the Austrian staff.

The lately concluded season, nevertheless, noticed an actual battle between a number of contenders, each on the drivers’ entrance however much more so on the constructors’ aspect. Lando Norris tried to “disturb” Max Verstappen within the race for his fourth Method 1 world title, whereas Ferrari and McLaren succeeded, within the not straightforward or predictable achievement in bridging the hole that Pink Bull had amassed within the first a part of the season and finally surpassing the reigning world champions. The ultimate hole between McLaren, which ended the championship with 666 factors, and Ferrari, who scored 652, was simply 14 factors on the finish the Abu Dhabi race.

Fourteen factors out of 24 Grand Prix means lower than one level per race, and contemplating the six dash races that awarded factors, lower than half a degree per occasion. If we need to quantify it otherwise, 14 factors is a 3rd place, or a 4th and a ninth place extra, or a fifth and an eighth place extra, and so forth.

Wanting on the information from the final 10 years, it may be seen that the common factors distinction between the profitable staff of the constructors’ championship and the second-place staff is over 200 factors, 208 to be exact. The very best peak was final yr, with Pink Bull outscoring Mercedes by a staggering 451 factors, whereas the smallest hole, after this yr’s, was in 2021 with a detailed 28-point hole between Mercedes in P1 and Pink Bull in P2.

With these concerns in thoughts, the main target now turns to subsequent yr. The 2025 Method 1 season will function a really steady technical and sporting regulation that ought to guarantee additional tightening of the on-track competitors.

The world champion staff, given the fixed progress all through the lately concluded season, ought to be capable to simply stay among the many prime spots within the standings. Stability within the driver lineup may then assist McLaren preserve extra continuity. Ferrari, the second pressure this yr, can depend on the emotional increase tied to the arrival of Lewis Hamilton and the truth that, beneath staff principal Frederic Vasseur’s management, they’ve discovered a growth continuity that had all the time been lacking in earlier years.

For Pink Bull, there are two uncertainties: on one hand, the driving force pairing, whether or not they determine to proceed with Sergio Perez or change to Liam Lawson, may not be on paper on the similar degree as McLaren’s and Ferrari’s driver pairs. Moreover, from a technical standpoint, the lack of Adrian Newey and the “misplaced path” within the 2024 developments might be one other important level looking forward to 2025.

Mercedes deserves a separate chapter. The technical disaster is deep and lasting. The difficulties in understanding the automobile and the proper route for developments may resurface subsequent yr. Just like Pink Bull, the arrival of a really younger driver might be a important level when in comparison with this yr’s prime two groups and their driver pairings.

For the 2025 Method 1 constructors’ championship title, we don’t see how every other staff may break in, given the outcomes of this yr and in addition contemplating the driving force lineup, which is actually not on par—with all due respect—with that of McLaren and Ferrari.

Subsequently, it appears like a two-way combat for the constructors’ title between McLaren and Ferrari. It’s doubtless however not sure, given what Method 1 teaches us, particularly this yr. Should you keep in mind, after the primary 4 races this yr, the championship appeared already determined in Pink Bull’s favor. As everyone knows, issues turned out otherwise. It also needs to be added that in 2025, developments in the course of the yr will probably be “conditioned” by the 2026 mission, which can function a significant regulation change, so a part of the season must be “sacrificed” to keep away from arriving unprepared for the next one.

For now, our F1 prediction, with the engines of the 2024 Method 1 World Championship simply turned off, predicts McLaren and Ferrari will nonetheless be forward of Pink Bull and Mercedes.